USDOLLAR 2021-01-03 17:05

The Week Ahead - Most Important events in 1st week of January


UD Dollar: December ISM Manufacturing and Service PMI figures for December are due out on Tuesday and Thursday. the Services PMI will be the key driver.Initial jobless claims figures on Thursday will also draw attention.

elsewhere, Geo-Politics U.S Politics U.S politics will likely remain front and center in a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front. The Senate race will draw plenty of interest, with the Georgia runoff on 5th January. A Democrat victory would give the Democrats control of both houses of Congress. While the markets would expect more pandemic aid support, other Biden policies could be a concern. 

Expect nonfarm payroll figures and the unemployment rate to have the greatest impact on dollar this week Other stats include ADP nonfarm employment change, finalized Markit private sector PMI numbers, and factory orders.

EUR:  December manufacturing PMI figures for Spain and Italy are due out at the start of the week.

Expect Italy’s manufacturing PMI to draw the greatest interest. With finalized manufacturing from France, Germany, and the Eurozone also due out, any revisions will also provide direction.

On Tuesday, the focus shifts to retail sales and unemployment figures from Germany. With consumption key to economic recovery, both will provide the EUR with direction.

On Wednesday, Service sector PMIs for Italy and Spain are due out along. Barring dire numbers, however, the focus will be on finalized numbers from France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Through the 2nd half of the week, the German economy remains in the spotlight. November factory orders, industrial production, and trade data are due out on Thursday and Friday. On Friday, French consumer spending figures for November will also draw attention. While there will be sensitivity to the stats, the markets may be in a forgiving mood. The ongoing vaccinations across the EU and beyond and optimism towards the economic outlook will likely limit the impact of any disappointing numbers. Other stats due out include inflation figures from Germany and Italy and retail sales and unemployment numbers for the Eurozone.

Sterling Pound: It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include finalized private sector PMI numbers for December and construction PMI figures. Expect any revisions to the services PMI to have the greatest influence. Other stats include December house price and 3rd quarter labor productivity figures. We would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Pound, however. COVID-19 and updates from Europe on Britain’s 1st week away from the EU will influence.

Brexit It is Britain’s first week outside of the EU. There’s likely to be plenty of news hitting the wires. Some EU member states are likely to attempt to cause as much disruption as possible. Border controls and trade will be the main area of focus. Any disruption could test support for the Pound. One other area of interest will be whether some EU states look to forge bilateral ties with Britain.

Candian Dollar:  November’s RMPI is in focus on Tuesday ahead of trade data and December’s Ivey PMI on Thursday. While we expect some influence from the numbers, December employment figures on Friday will likely have the greatest impact.

On the other hand, private sector PMIs will influence sentiment towards the economic outlook. The knock-on effects on crude oil prices would also provide the Loonie with direction.

Australian Dollar:  November building approval and trade figures are due out on Thursday. With no other stats to consider, expect the trade figures to garner the greatest interest.

From elsewhere, private sector PMI numbers will also influence market risk sentiment and the Aussie Dollar. 

New Zealand Dollar: It’s another particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Kiwi Dollar with direction. Private sector PMIs through the week will influence.

Japanese Yen: It is a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar. Finalized private sector PMI figures for December are due out on Monday and Wednesday. The numbers are unlikely to have any impact on the Yen, however. At the end of the week, November household spending will draw interest.

China: It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic data front. December private sector PMI numbers are due out on Monday and Wednesday. While service sector numbers will influence, Monday’s Manufacturing PMI will garner the greatest interest.